listen · buying moments

Cold triggers

Strangers showing a buying moment in public.

In Buying moments

Cold triggers: strangers showing a buying moment in public.

A cold trigger is a trigger event seen in someone who has never touched your product: a post, a review, a launch listing, a job ad. Thirteen of them, in five families, each with the detectors that catch it, how long the window stays open, and the play that answers it.

Buying Moments Map → Cold triggers → Detector kinds → Signal catalog → Playbook Library

Public, so check the terms — Read only public data and respect each source and community's rules.

A person finds them, a person sends — A detector finds the moment. The founder sends the first message. Nothing goes to a stranger automatically.

Earn the second message — The first touch is a useful reply where they spoke. The offer comes later, if ever.

what it is

A change in a stranger's situation that opens a buying window.

Industry terms: trigger event or buying signal; the people are cold because they have never heard of you. The job of this layer is timing: the same person is a waste of a message in March and the perfect lead in October, the week their launch flops. Families are ordered by heat, a prior for how close the moment usually is to buying.

Shopping — Looking for a fix right now. · · 2 triggers · 10 detectors

Switching — Have a fix, want out of it. · · 2 triggers · 13 detectors

Burned — Tried something and it didn't work. · · 2 triggers · 12 detectors

Struggling — Feel the pain, not shopping yet. · · 3 triggers · 12 detectors

Changing — Something in their world just shifted. · · 4 triggers · 12 detectors

how it works

From a moment to a message.

Public moment — post · review · listing
Detector — phrase, threshold, event
Judge — really the trigger?
Signal — person, trigger, age
Lead — fit + intent, tiered
Play — reply, DM, page
posted_at — fresh_for ends (3 to 60 days by trigger) stale: material for a post, not a message Two detectors of different kinds on the same person (a low-vote launch AND a "crickets" post) is the strongest cold evidence there is.

step 1 — Screen the 13 · For this ICP, mark each trigger start, on, later or off, with a reason. Most products start with 3.

step 2 — Fill the placeholders · {job}, {category}, {competitor}, {role} come from the brief and competitor research.

step 3 — Turn on detectors · One per source, tested by hand first (see Testing a detector).

step 4 — Answer inside the window · Signals older than fresh_for drop to research material.

the object

Every trigger is one record.

Triggers are the stable layer. Detectors come and go; the trigger they serve, and the play that answers it, stay put. The sample is the Tried it and it failed trigger as VibeDraft would store it.

Field	Type	What it holds
`trigger_id`	string	Stable slug, e.g. `trg.tried-it-and-it-failed`. Every signal and lead carries it.
`name / aka`	string	The guide's plain name and the industry term (e.g. competitor dissatisfaction).
`side`	cold \| warm	Strangers in public, or people already in your funnel.
`family`	enum	One of nine families: shopping, switching, burned, struggling, changing, noticing, trying, paying, left.
`heat`	1 to 5	How close the family usually is to buying. A prior, replaced by measured reply and payment rates.
`status`	start \| on \| later \| off	The screening decision for this product's ICP, with the reason, stamped with the ICP version.
`where_it_shows`	text	The sources and phrases where the moment becomes visible.
`detectors`	detector ids	The monitoring rules that catch it (see Detector catalog).
`fresh_for`	duration	How long a caught signal still counts. Starts as a guess; fitted from the reply-by-age curve.
`feeds`	playbook ids	The plays that answer it.
`permission`	rule	Warm only: what the person has allowed (they spoke first, gave an email, are a customer).
`version`	integer	Bumped when status, window or feeds change.

one trigger, as data

{
 "trigger_id": "trg.tried-it-and-it-failed",
 "name": "Tried it and it failed",
 "aka": null,
 "side": "cold",
 "family": "burned",
 "heat": 3,
 "status": {
 "value": "start",
 "reason": "VibeDraft priority #1: founders who launched to silence",
 "icp_version": "icp.vibedraft.v3 (example)"
 },
 "where_it_shows": "dated attempts with bad results: launch listings, tried X, didn't work",
 "detectors": [
 "det.tried-it-and-it-failed.uneed",
 "det.tried-it-and-it-failed.peerpush",
 "det.tried-it-and-it-failed.ph",
 "det.tried-it-and-it-failed.hn",
 "det.tried-it-and-it-failed.betalist",
 "det.tried-it-and-it-failed.launch",
 "det.tried-it-and-it-failed.x",
 "det.tried-it-and-it-failed.reddit",
 "det.tried-it-and-it-failed.ads"
 ],
 "fresh_for": "7 to 30 days",
 "feeds": [
 "signal-based-outbound",
 "lead-to-waitlist queue"
 ],
 "permission": null,
 "version": 1
}

the catalog

All 13 cold triggers, with what catches them.

Each card: what the moment is, three example buyers, where it shows, the first move, the play that answers it, triggers it stacks with, and every detector that catches it. Placeholders in braces come from the brief: {job}, {category}, {competitor}, {role}.

Shopping · Looking for a fix right now.

Shopping — · window 3 to 7 days

Asking for a recommendation

industry term: recommendation request

They publicly ask what to use.

where it shows: Reddit, X, forums: "what do you use for", "best tool for", "any recommendations"
first move: Answer the question in the thread first, honestly, naming two or three options including yours. Link only if the community allows it.
answered by: listen-and-reply · community answers
stacks with: Unhappy with their current tool, Doing it by hand

VibeDraft

"any tool that writes X posts that don't sound like AI? tried 3, all slop"

Accountants (invoicing tool)

"What do you use to track which clients have paid? Excel isn't cutting it." (r/Bookkeeping)

Shopify stores (cart app)

"Best abandoned-cart app that isn't $300 a month?" (r/shopify)

detectors that catch it (6)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
Reddit	phrase	`"what do you use for" {job}` · `"best tool for" {job}` · `"any recommendations" + {category}`	strong 7 days	vendors answering their own threads; listicle bait
X	phrase	`"recommend" {category}` · `"what do you use for" {job}`, with a product link in the author's bio	medium 3 days	engagement-bait polls; replies already full of vendors
Threads	phrase	the same asks on Threads	medium 3 days	engagement bait
Hacker News	phrase	Ask HN titles with `{category}` + "recommend" or "what do you use"	strong 7 days	threads about big-company tooling
Indie Hackers	phrase	forum posts asking which tool to use for `{job}`	strong 7 days	vendors answering their own threads
Discord, Slack and Skool	phrase	the same questions in member communities	strong 7 days	rules that forbid answering with a link

Shopping — · window 7 to 30 days

Comparing options

industry term: active evaluation

They've narrowed it to two or three and are weighing them.

where it shows: "X vs Y", "alternatives to X", comparison threads, review-site comparisons
first move: Reply with the one difference that matters for their case, and offer the comparison page. Never trash the other tool.
answered by: comparison-interception comparison-pages · comparison pages, community answers
stacks with: Asking for a recommendation, Competitor shake-up

VibeDraft

"Typefully or Hypefury if I post every day?"

Accountants (invoicing tool)

"TaxDome or Karbon for a 3-person firm?"

Shopify stores (cart app)

"Klaviyo vs Omnisend for a store doing $10k a month?"

detectors that catch it (4)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
Reddit	phrase	`"{competitor} vs"` · `"alternative to {competitor}"` · `"{competitor} or {competitor}"`	strong 14 days	affiliate posts; the competitors' own staff
X	phrase	the same comparisons, plus `"switching to"`	medium 7 days	sponsored comparisons
G2	event	a new review on a `{competitor}` page that names an alternative it was compared with	weak 30 days	usually no reachable person: feeds comparison pages
Google Alerts	phrase	`"{competitor} alternative"`	weak 30 days	finds articles, not people: use them for comparison pages

Switching · Have a fix, want out of it.

Switching — · VibeDraft priority #2 · window 3 to 30 days

Unhappy with their current tool

industry term: competitor dissatisfaction

They pay for something and it's letting them down.

where it shows: complaints, low-star reviews, "cancelling", "switching from"
first move: Acknowledge the exact complaint, say what you do differently on that one point, and offer to help them move.
answered by: comparison-interception signal-based-outbound · comparison pages, founder-led outbound
stacks with: Comparing options, Competitor shake-up

VibeDraft

"cancelling my scheduler. $29 a month to post things nobody sees"

Accountants (invoicing tool)

2-star review: "powerful, but my clients can't figure out the portal"

Shopify stores (cart app)

"my email tool doubled my bill when my list hit 15k"

detectors that catch it (9)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
G2	threshold	new review of `{competitor}` with `rating ≤ 3`	strong 30 days	often no reachable person; the complaint feeds comparison pages
Capterra	threshold	new review of `{competitor}` with `rating ≤ 3`; note role, industry and company size	strong 30 days	rarely named: research more than outreach
Trustpilot	threshold	new review of `{competitor}` with `rating ≤ 2`	medium 30 days	consumer complaints outside the ICP; first names only
Apple App Store	threshold	`rating ≤ 2` on `{competitor}`'s app	medium 30 days	reviewer is a nickname; use the complaint, rarely the person
Google Play	threshold	`rating ≤ 2` on `{competitor}`'s app	medium 30 days	reviewer is a display name; use the complaint, rarely the person
Shopify App Store	threshold	`rating ≤ 2` on a competing app; the review names the store	strong 30 days	stores outside the ICP's size range
Chrome Web Store	threshold	`rating ≤ 2` on a competing extension	medium 30 days	one-line rants with no detail
Reddit	phrase	`"cancelling {competitor}"` · `"switching from {competitor}"` · `"{competitor} is too expensive"`	strong 7 days	venting with no plan to switch
X	phrase	the same phrases on X	medium 3 days	jokes and quote-posts

Switching — · window 1 to 7 days

Competitor shake-up

industry term: competitor event

A price rise, shutdown, acquisition or outage pushes many users to look at once.

where it shows: competitor pricing pages, changelogs, news, a spike in angry threads
first move: Publish the honest comparison page within 48 hours, then answer the angry threads with it.
answered by: comparison-pages offer-post-reply-loop · offer post, comparison pages
stacks with: Unhappy with their current tool

VibeDraft

a popular scheduler raises prices or loses API access

Accountants (invoicing tool)

a practice-management tool announces a big price increase

Shopify stores (cart app)

a review app is acquired and ends its free plan

detectors that catch it (4)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
Competitor pages	change	`{competitor}/pricing` or changelog changes: a price rise, a removed plan, an end-of-life notice	strong 3 days	layout-only changes; watch prices and plan names
Competitor pages	event	the status page reports a major outage	medium 1 day	short outages nobody noticed
News and funding	event	acquisition or shutdown news naming `{competitor}`	strong 7 days	rumours
Reddit	phrase	a spike of posts naming `{competitor}` with angry words, after one of the above	medium 3 days	the spike fades in days

Burned · Tried something and it didn't work.

Burned — · VibeDraft priority #1 · window 7 to 30 days

Tried it and it failed

They did the obvious thing and got nothing.

where it shows: dated attempts with bad results: launch listings, "tried X, didn't work"
first move: Reply to their post with one specific diagnosis of why it flopped. The offer comes in the second message, if at all.
answered by: signal-based-outbound lead-to-waitlist queue · founder-led outbound
stacks with: Set up, but no results, Taking stock

VibeDraft

Uneed listing, 4 upvotes, then a tweet: "launched, crickets"

Accountants (invoicing tool)

"set up automatic reminders in QuickBooks. clients ignore them anyway"

Shopify stores (cart app)

"spent $2k on Meta ads last month, 3 sales"

detectors that catch it (9)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
Uneed	threshold	launched in the last 7 days with `upvotes < 10`; a paid Spotlight slot makes it stronger	strong 7 days	agencies, templates, non-software listings
PeerPush	threshold	`publishedAt` in the last 7 days and low votes	strong 7 days	agencies, templates
Product Hunt	threshold	launched in the last 7 days, low votes and no comments	medium 7 days	launches never meant to win
Hacker News	threshold	a Show HN in the last 7 days with `points < 5` and no comments	medium 7 days	weekend projects with nothing to sell
BetaList	event	listed in the last 14 days, read with a post about no traction	medium 14 days	pre-product ideas
Other launch sites	threshold	a paid or featured slot with single-digit upvotes (Smol Launch, Fazier)	strong 7 days
X	phrase	`"launched"` + `"crickets"` / `"0 signups"` / `"no sales"`	strong 7 days	humble-brags that did fine
Reddit	phrase	the same phrases in founder subreddits	strong 7 days	retrospective war stories
Meta Ad Library	threshold	ads running 60+ days for a store with few reviews	medium 30 days	big brands

Burned — · VibeDraft priority #7 · window 7 to 14 days

Trying again

industry term: relaunch

Back for another go after the first one flopped.

where it shows: the same product or domain showing up twice; "relaunching", "v2"
first move: Congratulate the relaunch, ask what changed this time, and offer one concrete thing for launch week.
answered by: signal-based-outbound · launch week, founder-led outbound
stacks with: Tried it and it failed

VibeDraft

the same domain on Product Hunt in March and again in October

Accountants (invoicing tool)

"third practice-management tool in two years"

Shopify stores (cart app)

"relaunching my store under a new brand after a slow first year"

detectors that catch it (3)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
Product Hunt	event	the same product or domain launching a second time	strong 14 days	planned version launches that went well
Other launch sites	event	the same domain listed twice across launch sites	strong 14 days	name collisions: match on the domain
X	phrase	`"relaunching"` · `"launching again"` · `"v2 is live"`	medium 7 days	big companies' version launches

Struggling · Feel the pain, not shopping yet.

Struggling — · window 7 to 14 days

Venting about the problem

Frustrated, but haven't named a tool or a fix.

where it shows: pain phrases in the buyer's own words
first move: Add something useful to the thread. Weak on its own: wait for a second signal before any direct message.
answered by: listen-and-reply · community answers
stacks with: Doing it by hand, Taking stock

VibeDraft

"building is the easy part. getting anyone to care is impossible"

Accountants (invoicing tool)

"chasing clients for payment is the worst part of this job"

Shopify stores (cart app)

"half my week goes to 'where is my order' emails"

detectors that catch it (4)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
Reddit	phrase	pain phrases in the buyer's own words, from audience research	weak 14 days	jokes, memes, no budget
X	phrase	the same phrases on X	weak 7 days	very common, very vague
Threads	phrase	the same phrases on Threads	weak 7 days
Discord, Slack and Skool	phrase	the same phrases in member communities	medium 14 days	rules on replying with a product

Struggling — · VibeDraft priority #5 · window 7 to 14 days

Doing it by hand

industry term: manual workaround

A spreadsheet, a script, or a ritual they resent.

where it shows: "spreadsheet", "I built a script", template requests
first move: Share a better version of their workaround (a template, a script) with your product as the optional next step.
answered by: listen-and-reply free-tools-as-search-pages · community answers, offer post
stacks with: Venting about the problem, Hiring for the job you do

VibeDraft

"I track leads in a Google Sheet and DM everyone myself"

Accountants (invoicing tool)

"anyone have an Excel template for tracking client invoices?"

Shopify stores (cart app)

"I copy every order into a spreadsheet to know when to restock"

detectors that catch it (4)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
Reddit	phrase	`"template for" {job}` · `"spreadsheet"` or `"google sheet"` + {job} · `"I built a script"`	strong 14 days	people selling templates
X	phrase	the same phrases on X	medium 7 days	template sellers
Indie Hackers	phrase	posts sharing a homemade workflow for `{job}`	medium 14 days
Discord, Slack and Skool	phrase	template and spreadsheet requests	strong 14 days

Struggling — · VibeDraft priority #3 · window 30 days

Set up, but no results

All the setup is done and nothing is coming out the other end.

where it shows: public records where setup exists and the result is zero
first move: Point at the gap their own numbers show, and offer a short teardown.
answered by: signal-based-outbound lead-to-waitlist queue · founder-led outbound, offer post
stacks with: Tried it and it failed, Taking stock

VibeDraft

TrustMRR: payments connected, customers above zero, MRR $0

Accountants (invoicing tool)

usually invisible for this buyer

Shopify stores (cart app)

store live 6 months, 0 reviews, ads still running

detectors that catch it (4)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
Revenue boards	threshold	`customers > 0` and `MRR = $0`, or flat for 3+ months	strong 30 days	free products listed for the badge
Shopify App Store	threshold	a listing live 6+ months with 0 or 1 reviews	medium 30 days	side projects
Apple App Store	threshold	an app live 6+ months with very few ratings and a recent update	medium 30 days	abandoned apps
Meta Ad Library	threshold	ads running 60+ days for a store with very few reviews	medium 30 days

Changing · Something in their world just shifted.

Changing — · VibeDraft priority #6 · window 14 to 30 days

Crossed a threshold

industry term: growth milestone, funding event

Grew past a limit, raised money, or hit a cap.

where it shows: announcements, plan-limit complaints, funding news
first move: Congratulate them, then name the problem that usually shows up at this size.
answered by: signal-based-outbound · founder-led outbound
stacks with: Hiring for the job you do

VibeDraft

"just passed 100 users, can't keep up with replying to everyone"

Accountants (invoicing tool)

"just signed our 50th client"

Shopify stores (cart app)

"crossed $1M in sales, time to get serious about ops"

detectors that catch it (3)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
X	phrase	`"just crossed"` · `"just hit"` + users, customers or revenue · `"we raised"`	medium 14 days	growth bragging with no new problem
News and funding	event	funding for a company in the ICP's size range	strong 30 days	rounds too big for a self-serve product
Revenue boards	threshold	MRR crosses a line that matters, like $1k or $10k	medium 30 days

Changing — · window 14 to 30 days

Hiring for the job you do

industry term: hiring signal

About to solve it with a person instead of software.

where it shows: job boards, "we're hiring" posts
first move: Show what the hire would spend their first month on, and what software can take off their plate.
answered by: signal-based-outbound · founder-led outbound
stacks with: Crossed a threshold, Doing it by hand

VibeDraft

"hiring a part-time social media manager for my SaaS"

Accountants (invoicing tool)

job post: "billing coordinator, small CPA firm"

Shopify stores (cart app)

"looking for a VA to answer customer emails"

detectors that catch it (3)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
Job boards	event	a new post titled `{role}` at a company in the ICP's size range	strong 30 days	agencies hiring for clients; big companies
Hacker News	event	the monthly "Who is hiring?" thread, filtered for `{role}`	medium 30 days
X	phrase	`"hiring a" {role}` · `"looking for a VA"`	medium 14 days	recruiters reposting

Changing — · window 30 to 60 days

New in the role

industry term: job change, new business

Just started the business or took over the job. New owners change tools.

where it shows: "just quit to go full-time", "just opened my firm", job changes
first move: A welcome note with one resource for their first 90 days. New owners change tools, so stay helpful and patient.
answered by: signal-based-outbound · weekly long-form, founder-led outbound
stacks with: Asking for a recommendation

VibeDraft

"quit my job last month to go full-time on my SaaS"

Accountants (invoicing tool)

"just left Big 4 to open my own practice"

Shopify stores (cart app)

"just took over marketing at a DTC brand"

detectors that catch it (2)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
LinkedIn	event	job change into `{role}`, or a new company page	strong 60 days	titles that don't match the work
X	phrase	`"quit my job to go full-time"` · `"just opened my practice"` · `"day 1 at"`	medium 30 days

Changing — · VibeDraft priority #4 · window 7 to 30 days

Taking stock

They posted their own numbers and want to know what they mean.

where it shows: "month one", "year in review", open-startup pages
first move: Reply to the numbers with one observation and one question about what they're trying next.
answered by: signal-based-outbound · founder-led outbound
stacks with: Set up, but no results, Tried it and it failed

VibeDraft

"month 1: 212 visitors, 9 signups, $0"

Accountants (invoicing tool)

usually invisible for this buyer

Shopify stores (cart app)

"my store's first year, in numbers"

detectors that catch it (4)

Source	Kind	Match	Strength · fresh	Throw out
X	phrase	`"month 1"` · `"MRR update"` · `"year in review"` with numbers	medium 7 days	people whose numbers are fine
Reddit	phrase	the same posts in founder subreddits	medium 7 days
Indie Hackers	phrase	milestone posts with flat or zero numbers	medium 7 days
Revenue boards	event	a new revenue-board listing	weak 30 days	needs a second signal

failure modes

How cold triggers go wrong.

Failure	What it looks like	How to catch it
Vendors in disguise	Founders answering their own threads, affiliate comparisons, listicle bait.	Exclusions on every phrase detector; the judge checks the author's bio and posting history.
Humble-brags	"launched, crickets" from someone who did fine.	Require the number (upvotes, MRR) or a second signal before acting.
Stale moments	A 40-day-old recommendation thread that's long been answered.	fresh_for per detector; record posted_at, not just captured_at.
Unreachable people	App-store and review-site authors with nicknames.	Use the complaint for comparison pages, not outreach. Mark these detectors research-only.
Wrong ICP	Big companies, agencies, people with no budget.	The ICP's not-if lines and lead rules run on every signal, always.
Over-reaching	Several plays or several founders hitting the same thread.	Contact policy: one touch per person per trigger, logged.
Terms and community rules	Automating a source that forbids it, or posting links where links are banned.	The source directory's terms column; by hand until checked.

data to capture

Record it so the windows can be learned.

Following the guide's data rules: log the decision, version it, freeze the inputs, keep the negatives.

record

each trigger's screening decision (start, on, later, off) and the reason, with the ICP version
trigger_id on every signal
the source post's own posted_at beside captured_at
which detectors fired on the same person, and in what order

label

reply within 7 days, per trigger and by signal age
waitlist join or payment, traced back by trigger
founder real or not on a sample of matches

trains

a ranking of triggers by value per founder hour
a fitted fresh_for per trigger from the reply-by-age curve
stacking weights: how much a second trigger adds

test

which triggers are on (start 3 vs 5) by lead cohort
freshness window 24 hours vs 72 hours on one trigger
offline first: replay the decay curve before changing a window

Cold triggers: strangers showing a buying moment in public.

A change in a stranger's situation that opens a buying window.

From a moment to a message.

Every trigger is one record.

All 13 cold triggers, with what catches them.

Shopping · Looking for a fix right now.

Asking for a recommendation

Comparing options

Switching · Have a fix, want out of it.

Unhappy with their current tool

Competitor shake-up

Burned · Tried something and it didn't work.

Tried it and it failed

Trying again

Struggling · Feel the pain, not shopping yet.

Venting about the problem

Doing it by hand

Set up, but no results

Changing · Something in their world just shifted.

Crossed a threshold

Hiring for the job you do

New in the role

Taking stock

How cold triggers go wrong.

Record it so the windows can be learned.

Where to go next.