phase 2 · listen

Signals

Go deeper

A signal is one real person caught in one trigger: the post, listing or event a detector matched, frozen as it was, judged, and routed. This page defines the signal as an object, explains how the judge decides and where signals go, and lists the top signal types with the play that answers each.

trigger · the kind of event → detector · the rule that watches → signal · one person caught → lead · signals merged by person

in industry terms

An intent signal: evidence that one person is in a buying moment.

Sales and marketing teams call this an intent signal (or buying signal). It sits between a raw match, which is only a rule firing, and a lead, which is a person you'd actually contact. Most matches never become signals, and most signals never become leads on their own.

match — A rule fired · A detector found words, a number or a dated record that fits its rule. Nobody has checked it yet. Cheap and noisy. · "any tool for" + "release notes"

signal — A real person, in the moment · The match passed freshness, exclusions and the judge, and there's a person behind it.

lead — A person worth a message · One or more signals on the same person, merged, who fits the ICP. Leads get scored, tiered and handed to a playbook. · Hot · 2 signals · fits 3 of 3 lines

Who — A real person or a small team you can reach, not a brand account, a bot or a news site.

What — The exact text, listing or event, frozen at capture. Posts get edited and deleted; the signal keeps what you saw.

Which trigger — Exactly one trigger from the map. A post that shows two triggers becomes two signals.

How sure — The detector's strength plus the judge's verdict and confidence.

How fresh — When it was posted, not just when it was caught. The window closes on the post's clock.

Where next — The queue it was routed to, or the reason it was thrown out.

SIGNAL · EXAMPLE — A CHANGELOG TOOL

Text: "is there anything that writes release notes from commits? doing it by hand every friday is killing me"
Source: r/SaaS · posted 3 hours ago
Trigger: Asking for a recommendation
Detector: det.ask-reco.reddit v4
Strength: strong
Judge: yes · 0.91 · "asks for exactly the job; solo founder with a live SaaS"
Routed: pain queue

what happens next

merged with any other signal on the same person, checked against the ICP, then scored as a lead and offered the listen-and-reply play

the signal object

Every signal is one record with the same fields.

This is the shape a signal takes in the library and in code. Everything the judge and the founder later decide is written onto it or next to it, so the record is also the training row for the match judge.

Field	Type	What it holds
`signal_id`	string	Stable id, e.g. `sig_01J…`. Every lead, move and touch it leads to carries it.
`detector_id`	id + version	The detector that caught it, with the version that was live: `det.ask-reco.reddit` v4.
`trigger_id`	trigger id	Exactly one trigger from the Buying Moments Map.
`person`	person ref	Who it is: handle, profile url and any linked identities. Merged into a person record at the lead stage.
`source`	source id	Where it was caught: subreddit, X search, a launch site, your Stripe account.
`url`	link	The post, listing or record itself.
`posted_at`	time	When the person posted or the event happened. Freshness runs on this clock.
`captured_at`	time	When the detector caught it. The gap is detection lag.
`raw`	text + json	The full text and the raw payload, frozen at capture. Never edited afterwards.
`author`	snapshot	Bio, follower count, linked site and account age as they were at capture.
`rule`	name + score	Which part of the match fired, and its score.
`judge`	verdict	yes, no or unsure; the reason; confidence 0 to 1; the model and prompt version.
`strength`	strong \| medium \| weak	From the detector, adjusted by the judge.
`fresh_until`	time	posted_at plus the trigger's freshness window.
`queue`	pain \| engage \| listen \| launch	Where the router sent it.
`discard`	reason \| null	Why it was thrown out, if it was. Kept as a row either way.

one signal, as data

{
 "signal_id": "sig_01JAX7Q2",
 "detector": {
 "id": "det.ask-reco.reddit",
 "version": 4
 },
 "trigger_id": "ask-recommendation",
 "person": {
 "profile": "https://reddit.com/user/shipfast",
 "site": "shipfast.dev"
 },
 "source": "reddit:r/SaaS",
 "url": "https://reddit.com/r/SaaS/comments/…",
 "posted_at": "2026-10-17T09:12:00Z",
 "captured_at": "2026-10-17T09:40:00Z",
 "raw": {
 "title": "anything that writes release notes from commits?",
 "body": "doing it by hand every friday is killing me"
 },
 "author": {
 "bio": "solo founder, shipping shipfast",
 "karma": 1840,
 "account_age_days": 900
 },
 "rule": {
 "name": "ask + job",
 "score": 0.82
 },
 "judge": {
 "verdict": "yes",
 "reason": "asks for exactly the job; solo founder with a live SaaS",
 "confidence": 0.91,
 "model": "judge-model-id",
 "prompt_version": "judge.v7"
 },
 "strength": "strong",
 "fresh_until": "2026-10-20T09:12:00Z",
 "queue": "pain",
 "discard": null
}

the judge and the router

Four questions decide whether a match is a signal, then a rule decides where it goes.

The judge is a model call with a written rubric. It answers the same four questions for every match, and its answer is stored with the model and prompt version that gave it.

question 1 — Is it the trigger? · Does the text actually show this buying moment, or does it only share the words? "I built a changelog tool" is not "I need one".

question 2 — Is there a person? · Someone reachable who could buy: not a brand account, a bot, a journalist or a vendor fishing for clicks.

question 3 — Is it still open? · Posted inside the trigger's freshness window, and not already answered or solved in the thread.

question 4 — Does it pass the rules? · None of the ICP's "not if" lines, not a competitor or their staff, not an existing customer.

Verdicts and confidence

yes	It's a signal. Confidence (0 to 1) is stored and used to rank it among today's signals.
no	A discard, with the reason from the list below. Kept as a row: discards are the negatives the judge learns from.
unsure	Shown to the founder with the question the judge couldn't answer. Their answer becomes a label.
disagree	When the founder marks a "yes" as wrong (or a discard as real), both answers are kept. That disagreement set is the most valuable eval set the judge has.

Where a signal goes

pain	Public posts where someone describes the problem the product solves. The main source of cold leads.
engage	Replies to and mentions of your own account: people already talking to you. Each card is logged with the probability it was shown.
listen	On-topic conversation worth reading or joining, without a clear buying moment yet.
launch	Launch posts and listings: someone just shipped and is looking for users.

Otherwise it's Watch: kept, not contacted. The lead rules (customer, never a customer, competitor) are applied on top.

Hot — Warm · Watch

the library

The top signal types, each with the play that answers it.

Cold signals come from strangers in public; warm signals come from people already touching your product. Examples use a changelog tool for solo founders; braces are filled from the brief: {job}, {competitor}, {category}.

Asking · Someone describes the job or asks for help with it.

sig.ask-reco — cold

Asks for a recommendation

any tool that writes release notes from commits? doing it by hand every friday is killing me

strong — fresh for 72 hours · phrase

source: Reddit, X, Hacker News
trigger: asking for a recommendation
answer: listen-and-reply, Community answers

sig.public-pain — cold

Describes the pain in public

spent 3 hours on release notes again. there has to be a better way

medium — fresh for 72 hours · phrase

source: Reddit, X, Threads
trigger: public pain
answer: listen-and-reply, offer-post-reply-loop

sig.how-do-you — cold

Asks how others handle it

how do you all handle changelogs for a small saas? do people even read them?

medium — fresh for 7 days · phrase

source: Reddit, Indie Hackers, Hacker News
trigger: researching the problem
answer: Community answers, Get named by AI assistants

sig.diy-fail — cold

Tried to do it by hand and gave up

wrote a script to generate our changelog. it broke on merge commits. giving up

strong — fresh for 7 days · phrase

source: Reddit, X, GitHub issues
trigger: tried it and it failed
answer: listen-and-reply, Founder-led outreach

Competition · Someone is unhappy with, or choosing between, tools in your category.

sig.comp-complaint — cold

Complains about a competitor

{competitor} support hasn't answered in 6 days. thinking of switching

strong — fresh for 7 days · phrase

source: X, Reddit
trigger: unhappy with the current tool
answer: comparison-interception

sig.comparison — cold

Asks for a comparison

{competitor} vs {competitor2} for a two-person team?

strong — fresh for 7 days · phrase

source: Reddit, X, Hacker News
trigger: comparing options
answer: comparison-interception, Comparison pages

sig.alternative — cold

Looks for an alternative

looking for a {competitor} alternative that doesn't charge per seat

strong — fresh for 7 days · phrase

source: Reddit, X, Hacker News
trigger: comparing options
answer: comparison-interception, Comparison pages

sig.bad-review — cold

Leaves a bad review of a competitor

2 stars: "export is broken and nobody replies to tickets"

strong — fresh for 14 days · event

source: G2, Capterra, Trustpilot, app stores
trigger: unhappy with the current tool
answer: comparison-interception

sig.price-change — cold

A competitor raises its price

{competitor}/pricing: starter plan $9 → $19, changed overnight

medium — fresh for 14 days · change

source: competitor pricing pages
trigger: price shock
answer: offer-post-reply-loop, Comparison pages

Launch · Someone just shipped and needs users.

sig.quiet-launch — cold

Launched and nobody noticed

launch listing, 6 days old, 4 upvotes, maker answering every comment

strong — fresh for 7 days · threshold

source: Uneed, PeerPush, Product Hunt, Show HN
trigger: tried it and it failed
answer: launch-or-launch-again, Founder-led outreach

sig.launch-day — cold

Announces a launch

we're live on product hunt today, would love your feedback

medium — fresh for 3 days · event

source: X, Product Hunt
trigger: just launched
answer: Launch window

sig.zero-mrr — cold

Live, but no revenue

revenue board listing: MRR $0, launched 2 months ago

medium — fresh for 30 days · threshold

source: revenue boards (TrustMRR)
trigger: stuck at zero
answer: signal-based-outbound

Company · A company-level change that opens a window.

sig.hiring — cold

Hiring for the job your product does

job post: "part-time technical writer, release notes and docs"

medium — fresh for 30 days · event

source: job boards, Hacker News "Who is hiring?"
trigger: hiring for the job
answer: signal-based-outbound

sig.churned-tool — cold

Says they just cancelled a tool

just cancelled {competitor}. back to doing it by hand for now

strong — fresh for 14 days · phrase

source: X, Reddit
trigger: between tools
answer: comparison-interception, listen-and-reply

Hand-raise · Someone answers you directly.

sig.keyword — cold

Comments the keyword on your post

replies "pipeline" under your post offering the template

strong — fresh for 48 hours · your data

source: your own posts on X, Threads, Instagram
trigger: raised a hand
answer: comment-a-keyword

sig.mention — warm

Replies to or mentions you

@you does this work with gitlab or only github?

strong — fresh for 48 hours · your data

trigger: raised a hand
answer: listen-and-reply

sig.inbound-dm — warm

Sends a DM or comments on Instagram

how much is it after the beta?

strong — fresh for 48 hours · your data

source: Instagram comments and DMs
trigger: raised a hand
answer: listen-and-reply

Your product · People already in your product, waitlist or billing.

sig.waitlist — warm

Joins the waitlist

new waitlist row: name, email, "what would you use it for?" answered

strong — fresh for 7 days · your data

source: your waitlist
trigger: signed up
answer: Waitlist countdown

sig.signup-idle — warm

Signed up, didn't do the first thing

account created 2 days ago, no repo connected

strong — fresh for 3 days · your data

source: your app
trigger: signed up
answer: Activation nudge

sig.stalled-trial — warm

Trial is stalling

trial day 5, two logins, no changelog published

strong — fresh for until the trial ends · your data

source: your app
trigger: stalled trial
answer: Stalled trial rescue

sig.pricing-visit — warm

A known person visits pricing twice

same signed-up user on /pricing twice this week, no upgrade

medium — fresh for 3 days · your data

source: your analytics
trigger: evaluating
answer: Founder-led outreach

sig.payment-failed — warm

A payment fails

Stripe invoice.payment_failed, attempt 1, $19

strong — fresh for 7 days · your data

source: Stripe
trigger: payment failed
answer: Failed payment recovery

sig.cancelled — warm

Cancels a subscription

Stripe customer.subscription.deleted, 4 months in, reason: "too expensive"

strong — fresh for 30 days · your data

source: Stripe
trigger: cancelled
answer: Win-back

sig.replied — warm

Replies to your message

"yes, send it over" in reply to step 1 of a sequence

strong — fresh for 24 hours · your data

source: your inbox and DMs
trigger: in conversation
answer: the next step of the sequence

discard reasons

Why a match is thrown out, and what each reason teaches.

Every discard keeps its reason. A detector that throws out most of what it catches for the same reason needs a new exclusion, not a smarter judge.

Reason	What it means	Example	What it trains or fixes
stale	Posted outside the trigger's freshness window.	a "any recommendations?" thread from three weeks ago	the freshness window per type; detection lag
excluded	Hits one of the ICP's "not if" lines.	an agency asking on behalf of a client	ICP lines: which ones throw out real buyers
competitor	A competitor, its staff or its affiliates.	a {competitor} employee asking what people think of the new pricing	the lead rules' competitor list
vendor	Someone selling, fishing for clicks, or promoting their own tool.	"what tool do you use for X? (asking because I built one)"	detector exclusions; the judge's "is there a buyer" question
customer	Already a customer, or already in a campaign.	a current user asking a support question in public
no person	A brand account, bot, news site or deleted user.	a newsletter account resharing a listicle	author-snapshot features for the judge
duplicate	The same person, same trigger, inside the window.	the same question cross-posted to three subreddits	person merging; counts as one signal with three sources
not the trigger	Shares the words but not the moment.	"I built a changelog tool, roast my landing page"	the judge's "is it the trigger" question; new negative phrases
answered	Already solved in the thread.	the asker replied "went with X, thanks all"	thread state as a judge input
out of scope	Wrong language, region or platform for the product.	asks for a tool that only works with a stack you don't support	brief fields for supported stack and region

how it connects

Signals sit between the rules that catch people and the list you work from.

before — Buying Moments Map · Each signal belongs to exactly one trigger on the map. The trigger sets its freshness window.

before — Detector catalog · The detector that caught it, and its version. Signals are how a detector's precision is measured.

before — Your own sources · Feeds and saves the founder brings can feed detectors too, so they produce signals like any other source.

after — Lead scoring and merging · Signals on the same person merge into one lead, which is scored, tiered and checked against the ICP.

after — Playbook Library · The play that answers a signal type: see the "answer" line on each card above.

learn — GTM tracking plan · The item_matched, match_judged, match_labeled, signal_created and match_discarded events.

data to capture

Record every signal so the judge can learn from it later.

Optimizes the match judge and the router. The same rules as every stage in this guide: log the decision, version whatever decided, freeze the inputs, keep the negatives.

record

the full raw text and an author snapshot, frozen at capture
posted_at next to captured_at, so detection lag and decay can be measured
detector id and version, the rule that fired, and its score
the judge's verdict, reason, confidence, model and prompt version
every discard with its reason
the queue it was routed to

label

founder: real or not, one tap, with an optional reason
the cases where judge and founder disagree
later outcomes on the same person: became a lead, replied, paid

trains

the match judge, distilled into a small, cheap model
the routing classifier
per-signal-type value: which types turn into replies and payments
a fitted freshness window per type, from reply rate by age

test

judge prompt and model: offline replay against founder labels before switching
routing rules: replay last month's signals through the new rule and compare queues
freshness windows: by lead cohort once the decay curve exists